Since 1980, CampChuck has predicted the winners in the six major Academy Awards categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Actress, and Best Supporting Actor and Actress. The first graph shows the average of how many correct predictions were made in each of these categories. The second graph shows how many correct predictions in these categories year to year.
CampChuck Oscar Prediction Statistics
The two best five-year stretches of prediction occurred from 1993 - 1997 and from 2007 through 2011. CampChuck averaged predicting 77 and 80% right (4.6 and 4.8 of 6).
The two worst five-year stretches of prediction occurred from 1981 - 1985 and from 1999 - 2003. In both stretches, CampChuck averaged predicting only 40% right (2.4 of 6).
Six out of six happened in 1994, 2004, and 2009.
Who knows why, but predicting Supporting Actor over the years has significantly dragged down the average.